Some updates on the further weather development

48 hrs ago, GFS showed a Genoa low signal for May 11 to 13 which would have had an impact on Germany/Saxony (see my recent post). Although being not that strong than the low causing the Central European floods of May/June 2013, the predicted general circulation pattern was quite comparable to that of 2013 (compare first and second column of Fig. 1).

Figure 1: Atmospheric pressure development during May 2013 compared to two GFS runs (initialized April 30 and May 2).

At this time, the signal disappears for the mid-range (May 8 to 13) as the third column in Fig. 1 shows.

However, as of today, GFS shows the formation of a quite strong Genoa low, going on right now (see Figures 2 and 3) with heavy rainfall being expected for Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Romania within the next three days.

Figure 2: GFS-predicted atmospheric pressure distribution for the next couple of days (initialized May 2).

Figure 3: GFS-predicted precipitation distribution for the next couple of days (initialized May 2).

The same story is told by COSMO-LEPS (for details see here), showing a high probability for heavy precipitation over the aforementioned area between May 4 and 5 (see Fig. 4).

Figure 4: Probability of rainfall sums larger than 50 mm in 24 hrs for the period May 4 to 5 from COSMO-LEPS.

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