Some updates on the further weather development

48 hrs ago, GFS showed a Genoa low signal for May 11 to 13 which would have had an impact on Germany/Saxony (see my recent post). Although being not that strong than the low causing the Central European floods of May/June 2013, the predicted general circulation pattern was quite comparable to that of 2013 (compare first and second column of Fig. 1).

Atmospheric pressure development during May 2013 compared to two GFS runs (initialized April 30 and May 2).

Figure 1: Atmospheric pressure development during May 2013 compared to two GFS runs (initialized April 30 and May 2).

At this time, the signal disappears for the mid-range (May 8 to 13) as the third column in Fig. 1 shows.

However, as of today, GFS shows the formation of a quite strong Genoa low, going on right now (see Figures 2 and 3) with heavy rainfall being expected for Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary and Romania within the next three days.

GFS-predicted atmospheric pressure distribution for the next couple of days (initialized May 2).

Figure 2: GFS-predicted atmospheric pressure distribution for the next couple of days (initialized May 2).

precip

Figure 3: GFS-predicted precipitation distribution for the next couple of days (initialized May 2).

The same story is told by COSMO-LEPS (for details see here), showing a high probability for heavy precipitation over the aforementioned area between May 4 and 5 (see Fig. 4).

Figure 4: Probability of rainfall sums larger than 50 mm in 24 hrs for the period May 4 to 5 from COSMO-LEPS.

Figure 4: Probability of rainfall sums larger than 50 mm in 24 hrs for the period May 4 to 5 from COSMO-LEPS.

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2 thoughts on “Some updates on the further weather development

  1. Pingback: A look at Serbia | Andy Philipp's Hydrology Blog

  2. Pingback: Floods in Serbia and Bosnia | Andy Philipp's Hydrology Blog

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