Genoa low signal in the GFS output for May 11 to 13

Today’s 06:00 UTC operational run of NCEP’s Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows a signal predicting the formation of a Genoa low in the second decade of May, leading to noticeable precipitation.

Precipitation from GFS output (operational run 30 April 2014, 06:00 UTC).

Precipitation from GFS output (operational run 30 April 2014, 06:00 UTC).

In the past, cyclones with this genesis have led to severe flooding in Central Europe. For instance,

However, GFS signal’s lead time is larger than 10 days and thus quite uncertain, of course. Therefore, it is a good idea to have an eye on the further meteorological development but we better (saying it with Douglas Adams) don’t panic…

PS: Thanks to Karol Krizka for sharing his experience with ImageMagick as an animated GIF creator.

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One thought on “Genoa low signal in the GFS output for May 11 to 13

  1. Pingback: Some updates on the further weather development | Andy Philipp's Hydrology Blog

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