Today’s 06:00 UTC operational run of NCEP’s Global Forecasting System (GFS) shows a signal predicting the formation of a Genoa low in the second decade of May, leading to noticeable precipitation.
In the past, cyclones with this genesis have led to severe flooding in Central Europe. For instance,
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Mary_Magdalene%27s_flood
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_European_flood
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_European_floods
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_European_floods
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_European_floods
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Central_European_floods
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_European_floods
However, GFS signal’s lead time is larger than 10 days and thus quite uncertain, of course. Therefore, it is a good idea to have an eye on the further meteorological development but we better (saying it with Douglas Adams) don’t panic…
PS: Thanks to Karol Krizka for sharing his experience with ImageMagick as an animated GIF creator.
Andy Philipp's Hydrology Blog 
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